Featherweight
3 Rounds
Julio Arce won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2019·Rochester, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(56.7%)
Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
- Julio Arce has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Julio Arce has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Julio Arce
Red Corner
VS
Julian Erosa
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
36
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julio Arce
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21W
vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22L
vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julio ArceMetricJulian Erosa
4.36
Strikes / min
6.18
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
6.31
68%
Strike defense
48%
0.46
TDs / 15 min
1.73
96%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.31Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julio ArceJulian Erosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julio Arce(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.3-45.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+126.0-126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Julio Arce
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Julian Erosa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18