Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Julius Walker won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 9, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Julius Walker wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Julius Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Julius Walker has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Cerqueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Julius Walker
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Cerqueira
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+530
(16%)
26
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julius WalkerL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Feb 25L
KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Feb 26Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ibo Aslan · Oct 24L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 25L
SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julius WalkerMetricRafael Cerqueira
3.73
Strikes / min
1.56
4.03
Strikes absorbed / min
5.05
43%
Strike defense
36%
4.09
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
36%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-3.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Julius WalkerRafael Cerqueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julius Walker(3 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.4-16.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Julius Walker
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights3
Rafael Cerqueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4