Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, March 21, 2010·Broomfield, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsGabriel Gonzaga: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(67.8%)
Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Junior Dos Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Gabriel Gonzaga
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
42
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →latest
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14L
vs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Junior Dos SantosMetricGabriel Gonzaga
4.49
Strikes / min
2.12
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.94
56%
Strike defense
57%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
2.80
81%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Junior Dos SantosGabriel Gonzaga
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Junior Dos Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19
Gabriel Gonzaga
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12