Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tuco Tokkos won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 12, 2025·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Style matchupJunior Tafa: StrikervsTuco Tokkos: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Junior Tafa wins(64.7%)
Actual result: Tuco Tokkos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Junior Tafa has lost 60% of fights by sub.
- Junior Tafa has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Junior Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Tuco Tokkos
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
29
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Junior Tafa
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Parker Porter · Aug 23L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24W
KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24L
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26Tuco TokkosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Oumar Sy · May 24L
vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Junior TafaMetricTuco Tokkos
3.62
Strikes / min
2.12
2.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
51%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.21
72%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96Δ 3.11 — meaningful gap-2.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Junior TafaTuco Tokkos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Junior Tafa(7 fights)Tuco Tokkos(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+21.0-21.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Junior Tafa
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7
Tuco Tokkos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3