Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brandon Thatch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, August 28, 2013·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Edwards wins(69.1%)
Actual result: Brandon Thatch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Brandon Thatch has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Brandon Thatch has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).
- Brandon Thatch has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Thatch
Blue Corner
+248
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin EdwardsL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11L
vs John Maguire · Nov 11W
SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12L
vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14L
SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15Brandon ThatchL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13L
SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15L
SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16L
SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin EdwardsMetricBrandon Thatch
2.68
Strikes / min
2.70
3.32
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
51%
Strike defense
52%
2.14
TDs / 15 min
1.36
27%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin EdwardsBrandon Thatch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Edwards(7 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.9-2.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.048.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Justin Edwards
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7
Brandon Thatch
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6