Lightweight
5 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 25, 2018·Lincoln, Nebraska, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsJames Vick: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(63.5%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- James Vick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (60% of wins). James Vick has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Justin Gaethje has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
James Vick
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
37
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26James VickL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Joe Duffy · Nov 17W
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18L
vs Paul Felder · Feb 19L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19L
KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricJames Vick
6.48
Strikes / min
4.13
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.31
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.26
74%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin GaethjeJames Vick
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-146.4146.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-55.055.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.7-2.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
James Vick
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14