Lightweight
3 Rounds
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R5
UFC Event·Saturday, April 13, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(58.1%)
Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+154
(39%)
37
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · May 22W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Max Holloway
oldest →latest
W
vs Arnold Allen · Apr 23W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricMax Holloway
6.48
Strikes / min
6.91
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
51%
Strike defense
58%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.23
74%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap+2.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin GaethjeMax Holloway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-54.954.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Max Holloway
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights32