Lightweight
3 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 6, 2021·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(66.0%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chandler is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chandler
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
37
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Michael ChandlerL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 21W
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricMichael Chandler
6.48
Strikes / min
4.04
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
51%
Strike defense
43%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
1.96
74%
Takedown defense
61%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin GaethjeMichael Chandler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Michael Chandler(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+66.6-66.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+203.0-203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.1-3.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Michael Chandler
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7