Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Justin Gaethje won · U-DEC R5
JG
PP
Justin GaethjevsPaddy Pimblett
UFC Event · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Justin Gaethje has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
Paddy Pimblett
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Gaethje
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · May 22W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25Paddy PimblettW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jul 22W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricPaddy Pimblett
6.48
Strikes / min
5.49
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
51%
Strike defense
42%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.69
74%
Takedown defense
44%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin GaethjePaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+4.8-4.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Paddy Pimblett
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8