Lightweight
3 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(62.4%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Fiziev has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Fiziev
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · May 22W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Rafael Fiziev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 22L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricRafael Fiziev
6.48
Strikes / min
4.71
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.84
51%
Strike defense
49%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.83
74%
Takedown defense
90%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-19.919.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Rafael Fiziev
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12