Featherweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Pineda won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 13, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Lawrence: Elusive strikervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Justin Lawrence wins(60.5%)
Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Justin Lawrence has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Justin Lawrence has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Justin Lawrence has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Lawrence
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Pineda
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
36
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Lawrence
oldest →latest
W
KOvs John Cofer · Jun 12L
KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 12Daniel PinedaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20W
SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin LawrenceMetricDaniel Pineda
3.84
Strikes / min
2.85
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
67%
Strike defense
45%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
1.42
73%
Takedown defense
54%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.01Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin LawrenceDaniel Pineda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Lawrence(3 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.3-5.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Justin Lawrence
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3
Daniel Pineda
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13