Flyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Ortiz won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, July 6, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Scoggins: WrestlervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(72.1%)
Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Justin Scoggins
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Ortiz
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joshua Sampo · May 15W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
vs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18Dustin Ortiz
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin ScogginsMetricDustin Ortiz
3.56
Strikes / min
2.94
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
55%
Strike defense
56%
3.42
TDs / 15 min
3.01
82%
Takedown defense
52%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.40evenly matched on net striking+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin ScogginsDustin Ortiz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.7-13.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Justin Scoggins
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9
Dustin Ortiz
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14