Flyweight
3 Rounds
Said Nurmagomedov won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 14, 2018·Boise, Idaho, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Scoggins: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(64.1%)
Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Justin Scoggins has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Justin Scoggins has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
- Said Nurmagomedov has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Scoggins
Red Corner
VS
Said Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin ScogginsL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14W
vs Joshua Sampo · May 15W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
vs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17Said NurmagomedovL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23W
SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25L
vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin ScogginsMetricSaid Nurmagomedov
3.56
Strikes / min
3.08
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.05
55%
Strike defense
55%
3.42
TDs / 15 min
0.86
82%
Takedown defense
63%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.40evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin ScogginsSaid Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.15.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.847.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
Justin Scoggins
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9
Said Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11