Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Tafa won · KO/TKO R1
JT
AL
Justin TafavsAusten Lane
UFC Event · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Justin Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Justin Tafa has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
- Austen Lane has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Austen Lane
Blue Corner
-198
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+164
(38%)
32
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'6"
187.96 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25Austen LaneL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin TafaMetricAusten Lane
4.05
Strikes / min
2.70
5.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.45
47%
Strike defense
39%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.50
53%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.06Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin TafaAusten Lane
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Austen Lane(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Justin Tafa
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Austen Lane
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights6