Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jared Vanderaa won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, May 22, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJustin Tafa: Pressure fightervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(57.0%)
Actual result: Jared Vanderaa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Vanderaa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jared Vanderaa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Justin Tafa has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
- Jared Vanderaa has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Justin Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Jared Vanderaa
Blue Corner
-178
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+157
(39%)
32
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25Jared VanderaaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22L
SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22L
KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin TafaMetricJared Vanderaa
4.05
Strikes / min
4.96
5.11
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
47%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.18
53%
Takedown defense
20%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.06evenly matched on net striking-0.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin TafaJared Vanderaa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Justin Tafa
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Jared Vanderaa
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights7