Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Yorgan De Castro won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 5, 2019·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(63.3%)
Actual result: Yorgan De Castro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yorgan De Castro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yorgan De Castro has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Justin Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Yorgan De Castro
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
32
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25Yorgan De CastroL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Greg Hardy · May 20L
vs Carlos Felipe · Oct 20L
KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin TafaMetricYorgan De Castro
4.05
Strikes / min
2.46
5.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
47%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
77%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.06evenly matched on net striking-1.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin TafaYorgan De Castro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Justin Tafa
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Yorgan De Castro
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4