Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Willis won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 2, 2017·Detroit, Michigan, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(69.1%)
Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allen Crowder has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Justin Willis
Red Corner
VS
Allen Crowder
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
38
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Willis
oldest →latest
W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18W
vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19Allen Crowder
oldest →latest
W
vs Greg Hardy · Jan 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin WillisMetricAllen Crowder
3.37
Strikes / min
2.95
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.95
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
1.85
36%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking0.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin WillisAllen Crowder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Willis(5 fights)Allen Crowder(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.5-13.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Justin Willis
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5
Allen Crowder
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3