Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Willis won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 21, 2018·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(66.1%)
Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chase Sherman has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Justin Willis
Red Corner
VS
Chase Sherman
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
38
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Willis
oldest →latest
W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17W
vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19Chase ShermanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22L
SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22W
KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22L
vs Karl Williams · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin WillisMetricChase Sherman
3.37
Strikes / min
6.04
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
6.65
57%
Strike defense
52%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
0.09
36%
Takedown defense
74%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Justin WillisChase Sherman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Willis(5 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.2-40.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Justin Willis
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5
Chase Sherman
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15