Flyweight
3 Rounds
Kai Kara-France won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 9, 2019·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Style matchupKai Kara-France: Well-roundedvsRaulian Paiva: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Kai Kara-France wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kai Kara-France has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Kai Kara-France
Red Corner
VS
Raulian Paiva
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
33
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kai Kara-France
oldest →latest
W
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22L
vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23W
KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25Raulian PaivaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20W
vs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kai Kara-FranceMetricRaulian Paiva
4.46
Strikes / min
4.14
3.24
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
64%
Strike defense
48%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.65
83%
Takedown defense
77%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.22Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kai Kara-FranceRaulian Paiva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.2-15.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Kai Kara-France
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights11
Raulian Paiva
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7