Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 28, 2018·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(52.3%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Kajan Johnson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Kajan Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kajan Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+450
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kajan Johnson
oldest →latest
W
vs Zhang Lipeng · May 15W
vs Naoyuki Kotani · Sep 15W
KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17W
vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kajan JohnsonMetricIslam Makhachev
2.47
Strikes / min
2.45
1.59
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
64%
Strike defense
61%
1.54
TDs / 15 min
3.10
62%
Takedown defense
91%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kajan JohnsonIslam Makhachev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kajan Johnson(7 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-6.56.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Kajan Johnson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18