Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, November 6, 2021·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(77.5%)
Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kamaru Usman has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
39
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricColby Covington
4.16
Strikes / min
3.81
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
55%
Strike defense
54%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
3.64
89%
Takedown defense
68%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kamaru UsmanColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+75.3-75.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-217.0217.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Kamaru Usman
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17