Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, February 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(72.8%)
Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
-278
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+228
(30%)
39
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →latest
W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricGilbert Burns
4.16
Strikes / min
3.16
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
2.04
89%
Takedown defense
53%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kamaru UsmanGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+58.0-58.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Kamaru Usman
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24