Welterweight
5 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, June 14, 2025·Atlanta, Georgia, USA, USA
Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(66.1%)
Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kamaru Usman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joaquin Buckley enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Joaquin Buckley
Blue Corner
+184
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-220
(69%)
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru UsmanL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 21W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23Joaquin BuckleyW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 23W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricJoaquin Buckley
4.16
Strikes / min
3.62
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
55%
Strike defense
58%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
1.43
89%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kamaru UsmanJoaquin Buckley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+50.7-50.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+420.0-420.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Kamaru Usman
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Joaquin Buckley
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights16