Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 16, 2017·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(64.9%)
Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Sergio Moraes
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
39
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →latest
W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricSergio Moraes
4.16
Strikes / min
2.42
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
55%
Strike defense
59%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
1.20
89%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kamaru UsmanSergio Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.5-3.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Kamaru Usman
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Sergio Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13