Lightweight
3 Rounds
Esteban Ribovics won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 8, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKamuela Kirk: Submission grapplervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Kamuela Kirk wins(60.5%)
Actual result: Esteban Ribovics wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Esteban Ribovics has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Esteban Ribovics has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamuela Kirk (52.9%).
- Kamuela Kirk has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kamuela Kirk
Red Corner
VS
Esteban Ribovics
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
32
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamuela Kirk
oldest →latest
W
vs Makwan Amirkhani · Jun 21L
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Mar 22Esteban Ribovics
oldest →latest
L
vs Loik Radzhabov · Mar 23W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25W
vs Elves Brener · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamuela KirkMetricEsteban Ribovics
3.22
Strikes / min
7.27
5.87
Strikes absorbed / min
5.83
40%
Strike defense
54%
1.50
TDs / 15 min
0.35
47%
Takedown defense
66%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.65Δ 4.09 — meaningful gap+1.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kamuela KirkEsteban Ribovics
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamuela Kirk(3 fights)Esteban Ribovics(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.6-19.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+357.0-357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Kamuela Kirk
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3
Esteban Ribovics
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6