Middleweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Allen won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, April 24, 2021·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(54.7%)
Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Roberson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Karl Roberson has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Karl Roberson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brendan Allen has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Karl Roberson
Red Corner
VS
Brendan Allen
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
35
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl RobersonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Wellington Turman · Jul 19W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19L
SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22Brendan AllenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24L
vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25W
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl RobersonMetricBrendan Allen
2.57
Strikes / min
3.59
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
47%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
1.56
40%
Takedown defense
56%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karl RobersonBrendan Allen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Roberson(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-19.719.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+154.0-154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
Karl Roberson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Brendan Allen
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18