Middleweight
3 Rounds
Karl Roberson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 3, 2018·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Karl Roberson threatens submissions; Jack Marshman has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Karl Roberson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Karl Roberson
Red Corner
VS
Jack Marshman
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
35
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl RobersonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19L
SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22Jack MarshmanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17W
vs John Phillips · Mar 19L
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19L
vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl RobersonMetricJack Marshman
2.57
Strikes / min
2.74
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.19
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
0.00
40%
Takedown defense
20%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-1.45
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karl RobersonJack Marshman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Roberson(10 fights)Jack Marshman(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.81.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-196.0196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Karl Roberson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Jack Marshman
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8