Middleweight
3 Rounds
Karl Roberson won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 13, 2019·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(68.1%)
Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Karl Roberson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Karl Roberson
Red Corner
VS
Wellington Turman
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
35
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl RobersonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19L
SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22Wellington TurmanL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21W
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22L
vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22L
vs Randy Brown · Jun 23L
SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl RobersonMetricWellington Turman
2.57
Strikes / min
3.23
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.17
57%
Strike defense
45%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
1.55
40%
Takedown defense
42%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.94
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karl RobersonWellington Turman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Roberson(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.2-6.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Karl Roberson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Wellington Turman
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9