Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Karl Williams won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 23, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKarl Williams: WrestlervsJustin Tafa: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Karl Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Williams has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
- Karl Williams has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Karl Williams
Red Corner
VS
Justin Tafa
Blue Corner
-205
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
36
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl Williams
oldest →latest
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · Mar 23W
vs Chase Sherman · May 23L
vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24Justin Tafa
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl WilliamsMetricJustin Tafa
2.68
Strikes / min
4.05
2.15
Strikes absorbed / min
5.11
55%
Strike defense
47%
4.20
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
53%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karl WilliamsJustin Tafa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Williams(4 fights)Justin Tafa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.6-8.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Karl Williams
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4
Justin Tafa
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9