Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Karl Williams won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 11, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKarl Williams: WrestlervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Karl Williams wins(63.4%)
Actual result: Karl Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Karl Williams has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Karl Williams
Red Corner
VS
Lukasz Brzeski
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl Williams
oldest →latest
W
vs Chase Sherman · May 23W
vs Justin Tafa · Mar 24L
vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24Lukasz BrzeskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23W
vs Valter Walker · Apr 24L
KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24L
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl WilliamsMetricLukasz Brzeski
2.68
Strikes / min
4.90
2.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
55%
Strike defense
54%
4.20
TDs / 15 min
0.41
100%
Takedown defense
35%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53evenly matched on net striking+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karl WilliamsLukasz Brzeski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Williams(4 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.0-13.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Karl Williams
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4
Lukasz Brzeski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7