Middleweight
3 Rounds
Francis Carmont won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 11, 2012·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Karlos Vemola wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francis Carmont has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Carmont has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Karlos Vemola
Red Corner
VS
Francis Carmont
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
40
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karlos Vemola
oldest →latest
L
vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10W
KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10L
vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11W
SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12L
SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13Francis CarmontL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13W
vs Costas Philippou · Sep 13L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karlos VemolaMetricFrancis Carmont
1.67
Strikes / min
2.22
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
1.64
37%
Strike defense
59%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
1.79
31%
Takedown defense
73%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.58
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karlos VemolaFrancis Carmont
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karlos Vemola(6 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.532.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Karlos Vemola
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6
Francis Carmont
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9