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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luana Santos won · Decision R3

Elo1493

Elo1550

Karol RosavsLuana SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Luana Santos won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Karol Rosa

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsLuana Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luana Santos wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luana Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Luana Santos

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1493

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Yana Santos · Jul 23

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

latest

Luana SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24

vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25

vs Melissa Croden · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricLuana Santos

5.88

Strikes / min

2.99

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

49%

Strike defense

63%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

2.17

70%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+0.06

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Luana Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.5|Blue +57.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetLuana Santos

By target zone

20% acc · 57%

Head

75% acc · 67%

33% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 33%

67% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 86%

Distance

75% acc · 67%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Luana Santos rounds

Round 1Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 2Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:37Control

Round 3Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 26

Sig Strikes

9 / 11

35%

Sig Str %

88.5%

126 / 147

Total Strikes

110 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

12:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luana Santos	7 / 9	36 / 38	1 / 5
1	Karol Rosa	4 / 16	55 / 67	0 / 0
2	Luana Santos	2 / 2	59 / 64	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	2 / 3	59 / 61	0 / 0
3	Luana Santos	0 / 0	15 / 18	1 / 5
3	Karol Rosa	1 / 7	12 / 19	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 52% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7