Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Jessica Penne won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 7, 2021·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Jessica Penne wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Red Corner
VS
Jessica Penne
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
40
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
162.56 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24L
KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25Jessica PenneL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17W
vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21L
vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22L
SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23L
vs Elise Reed · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricJessica Penne
5.54
Strikes / min
2.63
5.77
Strikes absorbed / min
5.05
56%
Strike defense
45%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.29
74%
Takedown defense
36%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.23Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap-2.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karolina KowalkiewiczJessica Penne
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Jessica Penne(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+420.0-420.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.81.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.6-2.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights19
Jessica Penne
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9