Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Michelle Waterson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 30, 2019·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
40
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'3"
162.56 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24L
KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25Michelle Waterson
oldest →latest
W
vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricMichelle Waterson
5.54
Strikes / min
—
5.77
Strikes absorbed / min
—
56%
Strike defense
—
0.36
TDs / 15 min
—
74%
Takedown defense
—
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
—
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karolina KowalkiewiczMichelle Waterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights19
Michelle Waterson
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3