Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Yan Xiaonan won
UFC Event·Saturday, February 22, 2020·Auckland, New Zealand, New Zealand
Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Red Corner
VS
Yan Xiaonan
Blue Corner
+225
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
40
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
162.56 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24L
KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25Yan Xiaonan
oldest →latest
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22W
KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23L
vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricYan Xiaonan
5.54
Strikes / min
4.69
5.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
56%
Strike defense
60%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
0.84
74%
Takedown defense
64%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.23Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Karolina KowalkiewiczYan Xiaonan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-54.554.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights19
Yan Xiaonan
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights13