Welterweight
3 Rounds
Keita Nakamura won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, September 22, 2017·Saitama, Saitama, Japan, Japan
Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Keita Nakamura has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Keita Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Alex Morono
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
41
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Keita Nakamura
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18W
vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18L
vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19Alex MoronoL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Court McGee · Apr 24L
vs Niko Price · Jun 24L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25L
vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Keita NakamuraMetricAlex Morono
2.23
Strikes / min
4.90
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
58%
Strike defense
55%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
0.32
63%
Takedown defense
47%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.97evenly matched on net striking+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Keita NakamuraAlex Morono
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.535.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Keita Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Alex Morono
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights23