Welterweight
3 Rounds
Keita Nakamura won
UFC Event·Saturday, September 26, 2015·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Keita Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Li Jingliang
Blue Corner
+255
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-310
(76%)
42
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Keita Nakamura
oldest →latest
L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16W
vs Alex Morono · Sep 17L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18W
vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18L
vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19Li JingliangL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Keita NakamuraMetricLi Jingliang
2.23
Strikes / min
4.46
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
3.95
58%
Strike defense
56%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
1.19
63%
Takedown defense
60%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.97Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Keita NakamuraLi Jingliang
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Li Jingliang(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.617.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+47.6-47.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.8-49.8
Keita Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Li Jingliang
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17