Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 22, 2024·Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(51.6%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
34
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 21W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22L
KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 24W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricDaniel Rodriguez
3.65
Strikes / min
7.20
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
5.40
57%
Strike defense
57%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
0.51
60%
Takedown defense
64%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+1.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumDaniel Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.416.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-203.0203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Daniel Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14