Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kelvin Gastelum has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
- Dustin Stoltzfus has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Stoltzfus
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+194
(34%)
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 21W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25Dustin Stoltzfus
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22W
SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23L
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24W
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricDustin Stoltzfus
3.65
Strikes / min
3.30
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
2.08
60%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumDustin Stoltzfus
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+84.8-84.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Dustin Stoltzfus
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10