Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, February 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsIan Heinisch: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Ian Heinisch wins(55.4%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Ian Heinisch
Blue Corner
-205
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+174
(36%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Ian Heinisch
oldest →latest
W
vs Antonio Carlos Junior · May 19L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricIan Heinisch
3.65
Strikes / min
3.25
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
57%
Strike defense
59%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
1.02
60%
Takedown defense
59%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumIan Heinisch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Ian Heinisch(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.1-32.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Ian Heinisch
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7