Middleweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, April 13, 2019·Atlanta, Georgia, USA, USA
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsIsrael Adesanya: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Israel Adesanya has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
- Israel Adesanya has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Israel Adesanya
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
34
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'4"
180.34 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricIsrael Adesanya
3.65
Strikes / min
4.03
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
0.05
60%
Takedown defense
76%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumIsrael Adesanya
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.4-26.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+273.0-273.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Israel Adesanya
StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19