Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(51.0%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Nate Marquardt
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
34
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricNate Marquardt
3.65
Strikes / min
2.71
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
1.87
60%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+79.4-79.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Nate Marquardt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14