Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 15, 2014·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsRick Story: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(57.0%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
34
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Rick Story
oldest →latest
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricRick Story
3.65
Strikes / min
3.80
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
57%
Strike defense
62%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
2.53
60%
Takedown defense
63%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kelvin GastelumRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-8.28.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+80.0-80.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16