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Middleweight
3 Rounds
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Elo1492
Kelvin Gastelum
Elo1543

Kelvin GastelumvsYousri BelgarouiUFC Prediction

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Saturday, September 12, 2026Glendale, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsYousri Belgaroui: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

The model's pick for this fight is locked

Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui is on the undercard. Headliner picks are free — unlock the full card with a $9 monthly Fight Detective membership.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yousri Belgaroui has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Yousri Belgaroui
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1492
Elo
1543
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24
L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26
latest
Yousri BelgarouiW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Azamat Bekoev · Oct 25
W
KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricYousri Belgaroui
3.65
Strikes / min
6.10
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
57%
Strike defense
63%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
0.29
60%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13Δ 3.80 — meaningful gap+3.93
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Yousri Belgaroui(2 fights)

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24

Yousri Belgaroui

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights2