Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 30, 2019·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupKennedy Nzechukwu: Pressure fightervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Kennedy Nzechukwu wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Kennedy Nzechukwu is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Kennedy Nzechukwu has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kennedy Nzechukwu (53.5%).
- Kennedy Nzechukwu has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
33
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
210.82 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
oldest →latest
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Mar 24W
KOvs Chris Barnett · Oct 24W
KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Dec 24L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 25D
vs Marcus Buchecha · Dec 25Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kennedy NzechukwuMetricPaul Craig
4.96
Strikes / min
2.50
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
51%
Strike defense
43%
0.50
TDs / 15 min
1.43
80%
Takedown defense
35%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kennedy NzechukwuPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kennedy Nzechukwu(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.7-14.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.7-48.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Kennedy Nzechukwu
StanceSouthpaw
Height77.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights15
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20