Featherweight
3 Rounds
Tucker Lutz won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, May 15, 2021·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupKevin Aguilar: StrikervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Tucker Lutz wins(54.5%)
Actual result: Tucker Lutz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Kevin Aguilar
Red Corner
VS
Tucker Lutz
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin AguilarL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18W
vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19L
vs Dan Ige · Jun 19L
KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20L
vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20Tucker LutzL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin AguilarMetricTucker Lutz
3.96
Strikes / min
3.74
4.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
52%
Strike defense
44%
0.16
TDs / 15 min
1.99
78%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kevin AguilarTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.815.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.648.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Kevin Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6
Tucker Lutz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4