Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Casey won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 15, 2015·San Diego, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Kevin Casey wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Kevin Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Casey enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Ildemar Alcantara has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Casey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Kevin Casey
Red Corner
VS
Ildemar Alcantara
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
44
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin CaseyL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13L
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16L
KOvs Sam Alvey · Aug 16Ildemar Alcantara
oldest →latest
W
vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13L
vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13W
vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14L
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14W
vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin CaseyMetricIldemar Alcantara
2.27
Strikes / min
1.93
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
46%
Strike defense
50%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
2.00
27%
Takedown defense
81%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.49evenly matched on net striking-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kevin CaseyIldemar Alcantara
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Casey(4 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.645.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+658.0-658.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Kevin Casey
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4
Ildemar Alcantara
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7