Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 8, 2010·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Style matchupKevin Ferguson: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(53.5%)
Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Mitrione has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kevin Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Matt Mitrione
Blue Corner
-103
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-107
(52%)
52
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin FergusonNo prior UFC fights on record.
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin FergusonMetricMatt Mitrione
2.30
Strikes / min
3.55
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
38%
Strike defense
64%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.00
36%
Takedown defense
55%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.11Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kevin FergusonMatt Mitrione
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Ferguson(1 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Kevin Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights1
Matt Mitrione
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13