Lightweight
5 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2020·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Kevin Lee has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Kevin Lee
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin LeeL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin LeeMetricCharles Oliveira
3.88
Strikes / min
3.23
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
50%
Strike defense
48%
3.18
TDs / 15 min
2.29
75%
Takedown defense
54%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kevin LeeCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Lee(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-23.723.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36