Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2016·Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(67.9%)
Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Lee has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Kevin Lee has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Kevin Lee
Red Corner
VS
Magomed Mustafaev
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
195.58 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Magomed Mustafaev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15W
KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15W
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19L
vs Brad Riddell · Feb 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin LeeMetricMagomed Mustafaev
3.88
Strikes / min
2.59
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
50%
Strike defense
41%
3.18
TDs / 15 min
3.31
75%
Takedown defense
23%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kevin LeeMagomed Mustafaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Lee(10 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.8-31.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-209.0209.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19
Magomed Mustafaev
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5